Simdega

Next 7 daysLow0%

Quiet now. The season usually starts early March

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid February – early May
Record year: 2017580
Trend: +14%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +51%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	106	0
2002	98	0
2003	29	0
2004	114	4
2005	122	5
2006	92	2
2007	18	0
2008	133	4
2009	280	14
2010	518	27
2011	364	18
2012	9	9
2013	86	86
2014	41	41
2015	217	217
2016	467	467
2017	580	580
2018	421	424
2019	22	46
2020	1	1
2021	495	909
2022	51	178
2023	449	951
2024	19	52
2025	147	351
2026	71	323

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Quiet, as usual

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.0
Rank: 13 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.0

Dry air (60%)↑
Outside the fire season↓

Sun28°

Mon28°

Tue26°

Wed25°

Thu24°

Fri24°

Sat24°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

<0.1 expected · usual <0.1

Next 3 months

About usual

~2.7 expected · usual 1.9

likely 0.0–8.7 · usual 0.0–4.9

Season

Starts ~1 March
Peak ~8 March

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

early March – mid April

Onset: early March
Peak: early March
End: mid April

Critical windows

mid February – early May
97% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: +14%/10Raw: +51%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2013 to 47.9× its earlier level (p 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.98).

Unusual years

0

No year in this region is both statistically and practically unusual.

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson