Latehar

Next 7 daysExtreme87%

Quiet now. The season usually starts mid March

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: early March – late May
Record year: 20211,758
Trend: +5%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +95%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	778	23
2002	483	16
2003	628	51
2004	905	84
2005	460	32
2006	890	85
2007	149	3
2008	793	75
2009	893	82
2010	1579	155
2011	969	94
2012	442	439
2013	529	529
2014	330	330
2015	946	946
2016	771	771
2017	954	954
2018	345	399
2019	609	1269
2020	57	126
2021	1758	3484
2022	1437	3248
2023	727	1490
2024	828	1544
2025	590	1178
2026	1032	3206

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

One of the highest on record

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

2.1×

usual = 1×

This month: 5.3
Usual (median): 2.5
Rank: 3 of 26

Next 7 days

Extreme

Full risk view

Extreme

Expected detections: ~4.9

An active part of the fire season↑
Fires detected in recent days↑
This year is more active than normal↑

Sun29°

Mon30°

Tue26°

Wed25°

Thu24°

Fri25°

Sat25°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Extreme

~4.9 expected · usual 1.3

Next 3 months

Busier than usual

~36 expected · usual 24

likely 11–129 · usual 0.0–55

Season

Starts ~15 March
Peak ~29 March

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

mid March – early May

Onset: mid March
Peak: late March
End: early May

Critical windows

early March – late May
92% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: +5%/10Raw: +95%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 18.8× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 1.00).

Unusual years

8

2007
148
only 0.2× the normal annual activity
season began 19 weeks early
2010
1,579
2.0× the normal annual activity
2014
330
only 0.4× the normal annual activity
2018
345
only 0.5× the normal annual activity
2021
1,758
2.3× the normal annual activity
2023
727
season ended 6 weeks late
2025
590
season began 15 weeks early
2026
1,032
season began 8 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson