Gumla

Next 7 daysLow1%

Quiet now. The season usually starts early March

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: late February – mid May
Record year: 2017972
Trend: +17%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +115%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	167	0
2002	251	1
2003	263	9
2004	192	4
2005	248	6
2006	220	6
2007	144	3
2008	143	2
2009	703	24
2010	721	32
2011	695	33
2012	155	154
2013	433	433
2014	276	276
2015	380	380
2016	571	571
2017	972	972
2018	465	495
2019	302	549
2020	52	118
2021	603	1273
2022	304	921
2023	389	758
2024	179	355
2025	377	865
2026	342	1182

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Quiet, as usual

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.0
Rank: 12 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.1

No rain for 11 days↑
Outside the fire season↓

Sun26°

Mon26°

Tue25°

Wed24°

Thu24°

Fri24°

Sat22°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.1 expected · usual 0.1

Next 3 months

About usual

~3.9 expected · usual 5.5

likely 0.0–9.1 · usual 0.0–16

Season

Starts ~8 March
Peak ~22 March

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

early March – mid April

Onset: early March
Peak: late March
End: mid April

Critical windows

late February – mid May
97% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: +17%/10Raw: +115%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 53.2× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.06).

Unusual years

6

2001
167
season began 6 weeks early
2002
251
season began 4 weeks early
2007
144
season began 3 weeks late
2012
155
season began 3 weeks late
2020
52
only 0.2× the normal annual activity
season began 3 weeks late
2024
179
season began 4 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson