Dumka

Next 7 daysLow0%

Quiet now. The season usually starts late February

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: early February – early May
Record year: 2021466
Trend: +6%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +84%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	128	0
2002	162	1
2003	194	13
2004	281	20
2005	82	4
2006	224	20
2007	240	16
2008	186	11
2009	225	21
2010	338	25
2011	196	13
2012	234	233
2013	209	209
2014	194	194
2015	208	208
2016	179	179
2017	149	149
2018	189	196
2019	235	438
2020	100	163
2021	466	972
2022	102	205
2023	382	697
2024	178	392
2025	387	775
2026	72	279

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Quiet, as usual

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.0
Rank: 12 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.0

No rain expected in the coming days↑
Outside the fire season↓

Sun28°

Mon30°

Tue28°

Wed26°

Thu26°

Fri26°

Sat26°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

<0.1 expected · usual 0.1

Next 3 months

About usual

~3.0 expected · usual 2.0

likely 0.0–6.9 · usual 0.0–4.6

Season

Starts ~22 February
Peak ~8 March

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

late February – early April

Onset: late February
Peak: early March
End: early April

Critical windows

early February – early May
97% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: +6%/10Raw: +84%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 27.3× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.98).

Unusual years

12

2001
128
season began 5 weeks early
2002
162
season began 4 weeks early
2005
82
only 0.4× the normal annual activity
2006
224
season began 6 weeks early
2007
240
season began 3 weeks late
2010
338
1.7× the normal annual activity
2020
100
only 0.5× the normal annual activity
season began 3 weeks late
2021
466
2.4× the normal annual activity
2022
102
only 0.5× the normal annual activity
2023
382
1.9× the normal annual activity
2025
387
2.0× the normal annual activity
2026
72
only 0.4× the normal annual activity

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson