Shida Kartli

Next 7 daysLow6%

Fire season: about 19 weeks left

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: early August – mid September
Record year: 2001422
Trend: −14%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +69%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	422	45
2002	137	27
2003	84	22
2004	224	55
2005	58	15
2006	126	35
2007	46	6
2008	236	62
2009	82	20
2010	169	48
2011	95	28
2012	110	109
2013	34	34
2014	75	75
2015	152	152
2016	107	107
2017	195	195
2018	54	158
2019	188	405
2020	143	321
2021	47	103
2022	116	241
2023	59	127
2024	80	181
2025	256	809
2026	43	161

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 1.0
Rank: 20 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.6

An active part of the fire season↑
Fires detected in recent days↑
Rain expected (26 mm)↓

Sun14°

Mon10°

Tue9°

Wed11°

Thu12°

Fri11°

Sat10°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.6 expected · usual 3.9

Next 3 months

Quieter than usual

~3.3 expected · usual 13

likely 1.5–18 · usual 0.0–17

Season

Ends ~22 March
Peak ~16 August

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

early August – late March

Onset: early August
Peak: mid August
End: late March

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

early August – mid September
50% of annual activity
early March – mid March
11% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −14%/10Raw: +69%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2014 to 6.2× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 1.00).

Unusual years

6

2001
422
3.8× the normal annual activity
peak 5.5× stronger than normal
season ended 26 weeks early
2008
236
season ended 18 weeks early
2010
169
season began 3 weeks early
season ended 7 weeks early
2016
107
season began 3 weeks late
2018
54
season began 3 weeks early
2023
59
season began 3 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson