Samtskhe–Javakheti

Next 7 daysLow4%

Fire season: about 21 weeks left · 0.0× the usual for this week

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: early August – mid October
Record year: 2017341
Trend: −10%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +81%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	76	4
2002	28	1
2003	75	11
2004	89	17
2005	53	9
2006	153	42
2007	76	14
2008	169	48
2009	52	8
2010	247	66
2011	57	12
2012	125	125
2013	90	90
2014	62	62
2015	63	63
2016	83	83
2017	341	341
2018	35	78
2019	70	138
2020	21	41
2021	9	18
2022	128	257
2023	111	214
2024	17	46
2025	73	232
2026	33	91

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

Raw data

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 2.0
Rank: 23 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.4

An active part of the fire season↑
Fires detected in recent days↑
Rain expected (23 mm)↓

Sun11°

Mon8°

Tue11°

Wed11°

Thu12°

Fri11°

Sat7°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.4 expected · usual 3.4

Next 3 months

Quieter than usual

~3.6 expected · usual 12

likely 1.0–14 · usual 0.0–22

Season

Ends ~5 April
Peak ~23 August

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

mid August – early April

Onset: mid August
Peak: late August
End: early April

Critical windows

early August – mid October
54% of annual activity
early November – mid November
10% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −10%/10Raw: +81%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 6.1× its earlier level (p 0.003). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.53).

Unusual years

13

2003
75
season began 4 weeks late
2004
89
season began 3 weeks late
2006
153
season ended 27 weeks early
2009
52
season began 3 weeks late
2010
247
3.3× the normal annual activity
season began 3 weeks early
2012
125
season began 5 weeks late
2017
341
4.5× the normal annual activity
peak 8.1× stronger than normal
2018
35
season ended 19 weeks early
2019
70
season began 3 weeks early
2020
21
only 0.3× the normal annual activity
2022
128
season ended 23 weeks early
2023
111
season ended 22 weeks early
2024
17
only 0.2× the normal annual activity

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson