Samegrelo-Zemo Svaneti

Next 7 daysLow12%

Fire season: about 22 weeks left · 0.0× the usual for this week

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid December – mid January
Record year: 2014318
Trend: −18%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +78%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	146	15
2002	123	15
2003	274	86
2004	302	93
2005	279	89
2006	131	31
2007	273	75
2008	213	55
2009	121	28
2010	228	63
2011	116	22
2012	239	226
2013	307	307
2014	318	318
2015	168	168
2016	226	226
2017	225	225
2018	69	135
2019	162	287
2020	244	497
2021	193	423
2022	79	172
2023	155	264
2024	104	337
2025	134	398
2026	46	138

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 1.6
Rank: 20 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~1.2

An active part of the fire season↑
Dry air (33%)↑
Fires detected in recent days↑
Rain expected (132 mm)↓

Sun14°

Mon11°

Tue14°

Wed14°

Thu16°

Fri13°

Sat13°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~1.2 expected · usual 2.8

Next 3 months

Quieter than usual

~39 expected · usual 85

likely 1.7–126 · usual 0.0–211

Season

Ends ~12 April
Peak ~5 April

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

early November – mid April

Onset: early November
Peak: early April
End: mid April

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

mid December – mid January
27% of annual activity
late March – mid April
14% of annual activity
early March – mid March
12% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −18%/10Raw: +78%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 5.5× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.26).

Unusual years

4

2018
69
season ended 8 weeks late
2021
193
season ended 9 weeks early
2023
155
season ended 11 weeks early
2026
46
only 0.2× the normal annual activity

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson