Mtskheta-Mtianeti

Next 7 daysLow3%

Peak fire period now

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid October – early December
Record year: 2010426
Trend: −10%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +51%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	96	8
2002	61	9
2003	22	1
2004	116	31
2005	21	1
2006	40	10
2007	72	16
2008	147	39
2009	37	7
2010	426	111
2011	43	8
2012	104	102
2013	65	65
2014	83	83
2015	59	59
2016	49	49
2017	179	179
2018	42	78
2019	201	398
2020	166	324
2021	24	42
2022	14	40
2023	37	82
2024	11	25
2025	78	272
2026	11	21

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

Raw data

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 3.0
Rank: 21 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.3

An active part of the fire season↑
A dry month (179 mm)↑
Rain expected (14 mm)↓

Sun10°

Mon2°

Tue1°

Wed7°

Thu7°

Fri7°

Sat6°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.3 expected · usual 14

Next 3 months

Quieter than usual

~6.3 expected · usual 30

likely 0.0–61 · usual 0.0–47

Season

Ends ~29 March
Peak ~8 November

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

mid September – late March

Onset: mid September
Peak: early November
End: late March

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

mid October – early December
44% of annual activity
early March – mid March
11% of annual activity
late March – early April
6% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −10%/10Raw: +51%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 5.9× its earlier level (p 0.004). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.33).

Unusual years

6

2001
96
season ended 6 weeks early
2007
72
season ended 7 weeks late
2009
37
season ended 6 weeks late
2010
426
7.0× the normal annual activity
peak 17× stronger than normal
season ended 16 weeks early
2024
11
only 0.2× the normal annual activity
season began 20 weeks late
2026
11
only 0.2× the normal annual activity
season began 23 weeks late
season ended 9 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson