Kvemo Kartli

Next 7 daysLow7%

Fire season: about 19 weeks left · 0.0× the usual for this week

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid July – early September
Record year: 2010383
Trend: −34%/ 10significant · on raw data: +61%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	338	79
2002	196	55
2003	165	58
2004	213	87
2005	248	74
2006	215	94
2007	170	42
2008	193	54
2009	80	18
2010	383	133
2011	157	58
2012	216	208
2013	101	101
2014	78	78
2015	269	269
2016	88	88
2017	135	135
2018	71	112
2019	131	300
2020	126	253
2021	91	200
2022	136	286
2023	67	176
2024	81	275
2025	249	803
2026	108	330

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

Raw data

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 2.0
Rank: 22 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~1.0

An active part of the fire season↑
Fires detected in recent days↑
Hot weather (14 °C)↑
Humid air (59%)↓

Sun20°

Mon11°

Tue7°

Wed13°

Thu14°

Fri17°

Sat14°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~1.0 expected · usual 4.0

Next 3 months

Quieter than usual

~12 expected · usual 36

likely 1.2–52 · usual 0.0–79

Season

Ends ~22 March
Peak ~2 August

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

mid July – late March

Onset: mid July
Peak: early August
End: late March

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

mid July – early September
32% of annual activity
late February – mid March
13% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −34%/10Raw: +61%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 3.4× its earlier level (p 0.002). ODLAR's record changes level in 2013 (p 0.05): a real change, or a trend.

Unusual years

14

2001
338
season ended 15 weeks early
2004
213
season ended 3 weeks late
2006
215
season began 4 weeks early
2007
170
season ended 3 weeks early
2009
80
season began 3 weeks early
2010
383
season ended 11 weeks early
2012
216
season began 19 weeks late
season ended 3 weeks late
2014
78
season began 3 weeks early
2015
269
season ended 14 weeks early
2020
126
season began 9 weeks late
2021
91
season began 4 weeks early
2022
136
season began 3 weeks early
2024
81
season began 4 weeks late
2026
108
season began 3 weeks early
season ended 4 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson