Imereti

Next 7 daysLow5%

Fire season: about 26 weeks left · 0.0× the usual for this week

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: early March – mid April
Record year: 2020134
Trend: −4%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +97%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	58	1
2002	56	10
2003	90	22
2004	88	24
2005	74	22
2006	50	6
2007	74	17
2008	79	19
2009	65	11
2010	85	28
2011	39	3
2012	58	57
2013	85	85
2014	95	95
2015	94	94
2016	44	44
2017	114	114
2018	49	103
2019	78	131
2020	134	224
2021	57	127
2022	55	104
2023	25	64
2024	70	243
2025	59	183
2026	25	72

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 1.5
Rank: 20 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.7

An active part of the fire season↑
Fires detected in recent days↑
Rain expected (97 mm)↓

Sun13°

Mon14°

Tue15°

Wed17°

Thu18°

Fri15°

Sat12°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.7 expected · usual 1.7

Next 3 months

Quieter than usual

~5.0 expected · usual 12

likely 1.0–21 · usual 0.0–26

Season

Ends ~10 May
Peak ~5 April

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

late August – early May

Onset: late August
Peak: early April
End: early May

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

early March – mid April
25% of annual activity
late January – early February
10% of annual activity
mid November – late November
4% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −4%/10Raw: +97%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 8.0× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.74).

Unusual years

11

2001
58
season began 3 weeks early
2003
90
season began 3 weeks late
2011
39
season began 3 weeks early
2013
85
season began 17 weeks late
2015
94
season ended 9 weeks early
2020
134
season began 3 weeks late
2021
57
season began 6 weeks late
2023
25
only 0.4× the normal annual activity
season began 3 weeks late
2024
70
season began 3 weeks early
2025
59
season began 4 weeks late
2026
25
only 0.4× the normal annual activity
season ended 6 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson