Guria

Next 7 daysLow2%

Fire season starts in about 3 weeks

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid February – mid April
Record year: 2008173
Trend: −16%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +75%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	82	6
2002	59	6
2003	96	31
2004	141	42
2005	60	16
2006	54	17
2007	51	12
2008	173	42
2009	79	23
2010	43	10
2011	43	13
2012	141	139
2013	125	125
2014	160	160
2015	67	67
2016	132	132
2017	114	114
2018	22	43
2019	69	139
2020	131	298
2021	105	195
2022	104	186
2023	21	46
2024	54	122
2025	39	136
2026	17	39

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.2
Rank: 14 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.2

An active part of the fire season↑
Rain expected (97 mm)↓

Sun14°

Mon14°

Tue16°

Wed16°

Thu17°

Fri15°

Sat15°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.2 expected · usual 0.8

Next 3 months

Quieter than usual

~17 expected · usual 40

likely 1.2–64 · usual 0.0–96

Season

Starts ~30 November
Peak ~7 December

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

late November – mid April

Onset: late November
Peak: early December
End: mid April

Two-peak season: spring and summer–autumn

Critical windows

mid February – mid April
41% of annual activity
late November – mid December
30% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −16%/10Raw: +75%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 6.9× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.63).

Unusual years

14

2001
82
season ended 14 weeks late
2004
141
season began 3 weeks late
2006
54
season began 8 weeks late
2007
51
season began 4 weeks late
2010
43
season ended 20 weeks late
2012
141
season began 3 weeks late
2015
67
season began 6 weeks late
2017
114
season began 4 weeks late
2019
69
season began 3 weeks early
2021
105
season ended 10 weeks early
2022
104
season ended 14 weeks early
2023
21
only 0.3× the normal annual activity
season began 5 weeks late
season ended 18 weeks late
2025
39
season ended 9 weeks early
2026
17
only 0.2× the normal annual activity
season began 4 weeks late
season ended 23 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson