Adjara

Next 7 daysLow1%

Fire season: about 25 weeks left

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: late February – early May
Record year: 201774
Trend: −18%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +71%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	22	0
2002	25	2
2003	35	10
2004	55	13
2005	28	6
2006	34	10
2007	34	4
2008	46	10
2009	47	12
2010	16	0
2011	22	3
2012	40	39
2013	42	42
2014	36	36
2015	39	39
2016	22	22
2017	74	74
2018	12	18
2019	22	46
2020	57	109
2021	25	47
2022	15	33
2023	15	36
2024	24	61
2025	10	36
2026	1	7

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.00×

usual = 1×

This month: 0.0
Usual (median): 0.2
Rank: 15 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.1

Fires detected in recent days↑
Rain expected (231 mm)↓

Sun8°

Mon3°

Tue8°

Wed7°

Thu9°

Fri7°

Sat5°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.1 expected · usual 0.3

Next 3 months

Quieter than usual

~0.3 expected · usual 3.0

likely 0.0–2.6 · usual 0.0–7.0

Season

Ends ~3 May
Peak ~8 March

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

late September – early May

Onset: late September
Peak: early March
End: early May

Critical windows

late February – early May
56% of annual activity
late January – early February
7% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −18%/10Raw: +71%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 7.2× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.16).

Unusual years

4

2014
36
season ended 6 weeks early
2017
74
2.6× the normal annual activity
2022
15
season ended 10 weeks late
2025
10
only 0.4× the normal annual activity
season ended 6 weeks early

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson