Shirak

Next 7 daysLow9%

Fire season: about 1 week left · 0.0× the usual for this week

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: mid August – early November
Record year: 2010264
Trend: −7%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +69%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	74	3
2002	87	11
2003	33	2
2004	191	42
2005	62	7
2006	55	7
2007	53	4
2008	102	16
2009	74	9
2010	264	60
2011	160	35
2012	57	57
2013	105	105
2014	40	40
2015	47	47
2016	186	186
2017	53	53
2018	185	408
2019	76	138
2020	27	48
2021	21	31
2022	22	45
2023	101	196
2024	86	204
2025	172	479
2026	125	333

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.58×

Raw data

2.0×

usual = 1×

This month: 1.2
Usual (median): 2.0
Rank: 17 of 26

Raw satellite data would say 2.0× the usual, because it joins MODIS and VIIRS as they are and VIIRS sees far more small fires. Corrected, it is 0.58×.

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.4

An active part of the fire season↑
Fires detected in recent days↑
Rain expected (21 mm)↓

Sun11°

Mon8°

Tue7°

Wed8°

Thu6°

Fri9°

Sat8°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.4 expected · usual 2.7

Next 3 months

Quieter than usual

~4.5 expected · usual 10

likely 2.8–18 · usual 0.0–25

Season

Ends ~16 November
Peak ~6 September

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

late June – mid November

Onset: late June
Peak: early September
End: mid November

Critical windows

mid August – early November
67% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: −7%/10Raw: +69%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2010 to 11.9× its earlier level (p 0.002). ODLAR's record has none (p 1.00).

Unusual years

3

2010
264
3.6× the normal annual activity
2021
21
only 0.3× the normal annual activity
season ended 10 weeks early
2022
22
only 0.3× the normal annual activity

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson