Gegharkunik

Next 7 daysLow6%

Peak fire period now

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: late August – late November
Record year: 2010971
Trend: +24%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +76%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	92	2
2002	145	23
2003	32	1
2004	148	30
2005	170	41
2006	40	2
2007	72	9
2008	288	75
2009	64	10
2010	971	236
2011	125	24
2012	260	259
2013	399	399
2014	94	94
2015	51	51
2016	148	148
2017	337	337
2018	324	643
2019	202	399
2020	20	42
2021	55	113
2022	592	1052
2023	127	252
2024	157	525
2025	690	2100
2026	51	153

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Below normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

0.20×

Raw data

2.7×

usual = 1×

This month: 2.0
Usual (median): 10
Rank: 20 of 26

Raw satellite data would say 2.7× the usual, because it joins MODIS and VIIRS as they are and VIIRS sees far more small fires. Corrected, it is 0.20×.

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~2.6

Fires detected in recent days↑
An active part of the fire season↑
Rain expected (32 mm)↓

Sun−2°

Mon−5°

Tue−6°

Wed−5°

Thu−4°

Fri8°

Sat9°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~2.6 expected · usual 25

Next 3 months

Quieter than usual

~21 expected · usual 66

likely 6.0–98 · usual 0.2–110

Season

Ends ~14 December
Peak ~8 November

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

late August – mid December

Onset: late August
Peak: early November
End: mid December

Critical windows

late August – late November
76% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: +24%/10Raw: +76%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 11.1× its earlier level (p 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.48).

Unusual years

10

2001
92
season began 3 weeks early
2003
32
season began 3 weeks early
2005
170
season began 3 weeks late
2006
40
season began 4 weeks early
2008
288
season began 4 weeks late
2009
64
season began 4 weeks late
2010
971
season began 3 weeks early
2012
260
season began 3 weeks late
2022
592
peak 6.0× stronger than normal
2025
690
peak 8.3× stronger than normal

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson