Aragatsotn

Next 7 daysLow5%

Quiet now. The season usually starts mid March

Annual mean: 0detections
Peak period: early August – mid October
Record year: 202578
Trend: +14%/ 10not significant · on raw data: +85%

Fire clock

Ring = year, slice = week. Tap a week to see its fires on the map.

Total detections per year: ODLAR's corrected record (on the VIIRS Suomi NPP scale) and the raw record (MODIS and VIIRS joined as they are)
Year	Harmonized	Raw
2001	33	1
2002	29	5
2003	17	1
2004	36	6
2005	20	1
2006	34	8
2007	17	1
2008	24	2
2009	15	0
2010	49	13
2011	36	9
2012	27	26
2013	41	41
2014	14	14
2015	16	16
2016	39	39
2017	50	50
2018	43	73
2019	51	83
2020	24	47
2021	13	28
2022	23	38
2023	44	74
2024	22	62
2025	78	242
2026	25	80

Tap a week to see the detections behind it.

Lighter: less certain (mostly the MODIS years, before 2012)No observationSatellite outage

A detection is a heat signal seen from space, not burned area or a count of separate fires.

November vs a usual year

Above normal

Weeks of 26 Oct – 8 Nov, compared with the same weeks of every year since 2001

ODLAR

1.7×

usual = 1×

This month: 1.1
Usual (median): 0.6
Rank: 10 of 26

Next 7 days

Low

Full risk view

Low

Expected detections: ~0.1

An active part of the fire season↑
Fires detected in recent days↑
Vegetation is moist↓

Sun4°

Mon1°

Tue−1°

Wed0°

Thu1°

Fri2°

Sat3°

What's ahead

From the next days to a year out. The further ahead, the less certain, and the chart says which part is a forecast and which is just the usual year.

Next 7 days

Low

~0.1 expected · usual 1.0

Next 3 months

About usual

~2.3 expected · usual 2.4

likely 0.9–6.2 · usual 0.0–6.0

Season

Starts ~15 March
Peak ~6 September

ForecastLikely rangeUsualUsual rangedetections / week

How sure is this?

Daily fire weather: the Open-Meteo weather forecast, most reliable for the first 3 days.
Next 7 days: tested on 6 past years, the model ranked a week that turned busy above a quiet one 86 times in 100 (the season alone: 72).
Next 3 months: the real total fell inside the likely range 76 times in 100 (the usual range alone: 71).
Beyond 3 months: the usual year. 8 in 10 past years fell inside the grey band. Weather that far ahead is not known.

Season

mid March – late October

Onset: mid March
Peak: early September
End: late October

Critical windows

early August – mid October
54% of annual activity
early March – mid March
4% of annual activity

The normal year vs 2026

Bands show the 25-year range; the white line is this year so far.

Compare with

25-year history

The raw record jumps in 2012 when VIIRS arrives; the harmonized record does not.

Harmonized: +14%/10Raw: +85%/10

HarmonizedNaive merged record90% uncertainty

Jump test (Pettitt): the raw record jumps in 2012 to 13.9× its earlier level (p < 0.001). ODLAR's record has none (p 0.58).

Unusual years

9

2010
49
season began 9 weeks late
season ended 6 weeks late
2014
14
season ended 7 weeks early
2015
16
season began 13 weeks late
2016
39
season began 15 weeks late
2017
50
peak 4.3× stronger than normal
2018
43
season began 9 weeks late
2021
13
season ended 18 weeks early
2023
44
season began 10 weeks late
2024
22
season ended 7 weeks late

ReportExport dataweekly.csv annual.csv hotspots.geojson